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Sunday, March 02, 2008

Acid test 2H07: Stock Performance 0 comments

(P.S: Click on the pictures to get a better view)
A belated semi-annual review of my hotstocknot picks. Remember that reference comparison prices are stock prices on the last day of 2H07 ie. Dec 31 2007.

As before, I review two lists of the stocks: the more recent picks from May-Oct 2007, labelled 2H07 Assessment, and the picks slightly further back from Jan-Apr 2007, labelled 1H07 Assessment. This constitutes my half-to-one-year medium-term horizon where I typically judge the performance of my picks.

As before, the mark of excellence is the 20% threshold for half-year comparisons (1H07), it becomes 40% for full-year comparison (2H06). As before, I concentrate on total return --- the price plus incorporation of all dividends during the period in question, as well as any stock splits/bonuses.

Assessment of 2H07 stock picks

2H07 Summary
Blue: 2 stocks
Green: 0 stocks
Yellow: 1 stocks
Red: 1 stocks

Have been slack and hence haven't done much articles for some time. Of the four I covered up till end-October, two have been on target (in blue), while the other two were off-target at least up till end-2007.

It is worth noting that since then, the depressed market has hit all four stocks below my price call. Those two blue ones, Ezion and HLG, have had it even worse; they're now about one-third to one-quarter of my price call. No market correction can do this if the company is sound. I'm completely vindicated in at least two of the hotstocksnot picks here, while the other two are still marginal.

Assessment of 1H07 stock picks

1H07 Summary
Blue: 5 stocks
Green: 1 stocks
Yellow: 1 stocks
Red: 1 stocks

Remember that the threshold return for colour coding is set at +/- 40% since this stocklist is further back.

Again, my hotstocknot picks as judged by end-2007 prices have been good; 5 out of 8 (blue) were spot-on. Since then, they have plunged downwards even more.

The other three non-blue ones were relatively marginal. With the big correction, I'd like especially to point out that I reverse my call on at least one of them --- Guthrie; I would call it a bargain stock now. Don't say I never recommend hot stocks.

I will try to do some more writeups. Perhaps I should do some shorting to really benefit monetarily from them.




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