A post from a long-lost blogger 65 comments
I received another of my Google Adsense cheques just recently, and was frankly quite surprised to get it because I haven't been posting for more than siz months. To be sure, I haven't been active for probably more than 2 years with my hotstocknot picks, as my last few postings were more rants on than anything else.
But this shows the quality of my blog, and I'm speaking in all frankness without bragging. The fact that people continue to come back to read my postings on various stocks several years back --- and why they should NOT buy it then --- speaks for itself. And I am pretty sure more than 90% of the hotstocknot picks have turned out to be right, based on today's prices as well as how fundamentals for the businesses have turned out. Just look at Raffles Education --- a darling when I first posted, and now a reject and a pariah stock. Or look at Lian Beng --- a construction stock which was ramped up to 60-70 cents during the heydays of the construction industry. Or how about Advanced, Autron, Biotreat, China Sun, China Petrotech, Cosco, Ellipsiz, Enviro-hub, Federal, Global Voice, Jiutian, Luzhou, Pine Agritech, Sino-Environment, Sky China, Sun East, Unifiber, Yellow Pages? All these are unmitigated "successes" of my hotstocksnot picks. My blog would, in all certainty, have been a short-seller's treasure trove.
Today since I have some time, I would just like to highlight some of the sectors in the Singapore market I'm optimistic and pessimistic about on the basis of fundamentals and general valuation, but it's up to the individual investor to decide for himself what individual stocks he would pick for the sector. Here goes:
Good sectors
- Commodities - All, especially agriculture
- Healthcare - look for niche and don't forget valuation
- Domestic consumption - check out Hong Kong market, don't forget Guangzhou Asian Games coming
- Tourism and retail - the "remaking of Singapore"
- High-end property
- Semiconductor components manufacturing and distribution
- Infrastructure builders - be selective, but many have dropped big-time already, so valuation is good
Bad sectors
- Telcos - Next generation broadband will be bad for all
- Shipbuilding - the good days are gone; come back 10 years later
- Offshore oil & gas - I give you a site: ODS Petrodata, check out the utilisation rates and charter rates for rigs and you'll be scared
- Container shipping - 40-year globalisation trend is weakening
- Construction - told you need to be selective; be careful of those dependent on building residential/commercial/Singapore-centric
- Mass market property
- Hard disk drive component suppliers
If you find a stock that is not talked about, with metrics that haven't declined too much during the crisis of 2008, and which has rebounded smartly since then, and valuation still at single-digit PE or below book, and not in any of the "hot" sectors currently, then go for it. The market is currently still in a re-rating phase and will pick new stocks to re-rate week after week. Money from a new carry trade based on the US$, plus huge capital exiting China under a loosening RMB regime with China promoting internationalisation of the RMB, all point to a magnificent bull market going forward.
That's why there isn't much point for hotstocksnot picks now, or indeed over the last 2 years!
65 Comments:
Congratulations on the cash out! I see that you have successfully just built a passive income generating scheme for yourself. You have an extensive resource of investing tips that's why people keep on coming back to your blog so no wonder about getting Adsense checks from time to time!
you blog is very interesting Agence de Referencement
I have been following your blog for singapore stock market related information and I just want to tell you what a great blog you are having over here. You deserve that adsense cheque anytime. I hope you continue posting. Do you think the STI is poised for further upside?
http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2010/09/straits-times-index/>
With the stock market roaring due to QE2, why do you need to AdSense cheques?
Wasn't your blog a labor of love? What happened why stop for 6 month?
...anyway over the years the thing I learn about the stock market : it is not how much profits you make during the bull market but how much you manage to keep when the bad times come that matters.
Simple answer: I got lazy.
plus, not much point since market was in doldrums so difficult to find overvalued stocks.
maybe I should start again sometime in near future. but i think i've covered almost a hundred hotstocksnot stocks, so will have to look around to write on others that I haven't touched before.
Stock can be hot, then they are not....it is not a static thing.
LifeBrandz was on the top 20 Volume so I was curious what it was and why it is now 1 cent. I goggled it and it brought me to your site. Looks like you predicted correctly in 2007. Impressive.
Thanks, you look like you are extremely successful at what you do.
Your blog really helps for my search in Adsense and i really like it.
I have a web site where I give investment advise on penny stocks and stocks under five dollars. If theirs anyone interested in these type of stocks you can check out my web site by just clicking my name. I would like to comment about penny stocks what most investors fail to realize about so called penny stocks is that stocks trading under 1 dollar are really not worth messing with the real bargains are stocks trading between 1 dollar and 5 dollars a share. I recenly sold my shares in vonage holdings corporation for 5 dollars. I bought the shares in 2009 for 37 cents. this was a rare exception to the general rule most of the stocks trading under 1 dollar are not good investments. the way that you find low priced stocks that are worthy investments is to have as much knowledge and experience as possible about these type of securities. only than can you profit tremendously from these stocks.
Congratulations :)
Well done on the Adsense ;)
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