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Sunday, September 05, 2010

A post from a long-lost blogger 56 comments

I received another of my Google Adsense cheques just recently, and was frankly quite surprised to get it because I haven't been posting for more than siz months. To be sure, I haven't been active for probably more than 2 years with my hotstocknot picks, as my last few postings were more rants on than anything else.

But this shows the quality of my blog, and I'm speaking in all frankness without bragging. The fact that people continue to come back to read my postings on various stocks several years back --- and why they should NOT buy it then --- speaks for itself. And I am pretty sure more than 90% of the hotstocknot picks have turned out to be right, based on today's prices as well as how fundamentals for the businesses have turned out. Just look at Raffles Education --- a darling when I first posted, and now a reject and a pariah stock. Or look at Lian Beng --- a construction stock which was ramped up to 60-70 cents during the heydays of the construction industry. Or how about Advanced, Autron, Biotreat, China Sun, China Petrotech, Cosco, Ellipsiz, Enviro-hub, Federal, Global Voice, Jiutian, Luzhou, Pine Agritech, Sino-Environment, Sky China, Sun East, Unifiber, Yellow Pages? All these are unmitigated "successes" of my hotstocksnot picks. My blog would, in all certainty, have been a short-seller's treasure trove.

Today since I have some time, I would just like to highlight some of the sectors in the Singapore market I'm optimistic and pessimistic about on the basis of fundamentals and general valuation, but it's up to the individual investor to decide for himself what individual stocks he would pick for the sector. Here goes:

Good sectors
- Commodities - All, especially agriculture
- Healthcare - look for niche and don't forget valuation
- Domestic consumption - check out Hong Kong market, don't forget Guangzhou Asian Games coming
- Tourism and retail - the "remaking of Singapore"
- High-end property
- Semiconductor components manufacturing and distribution
- Infrastructure builders - be selective, but many have dropped big-time already, so valuation is good

Bad sectors
- Telcos - Next generation broadband will be bad for all
- Shipbuilding - the good days are gone; come back 10 years later
- Offshore oil & gas - I give you a site: ODS Petrodata, check out the utilisation rates and charter rates for rigs and you'll be scared
- Container shipping - 40-year globalisation trend is weakening
- Construction - told you need to be selective; be careful of those dependent on building residential/commercial/Singapore-centric
- Mass market property
- Hard disk drive component suppliers


If you find a stock that is not talked about, with metrics that haven't declined too much during the crisis of 2008, and which has rebounded smartly since then, and valuation still at single-digit PE or below book, and not in any of the "hot" sectors currently, then go for it. The market is currently still in a re-rating phase and will pick new stocks to re-rate week after week. Money from a new carry trade based on the US$, plus huge capital exiting China under a loosening RMB regime with China promoting internationalisation of the RMB, all point to a magnificent bull market going forward.

That's why there isn't much point for hotstocksnot picks now, or indeed over the last 2 years!

 

 

56 Comments:

Blogger Jonha Ducayag Revesencio said...

Congratulations on the cash out! I see that you have successfully just built a passive income generating scheme for yourself. You have an extensive resource of investing tips that's why people keep on coming back to your blog so no wonder about getting Adsense checks from time to time!

9/09/2010 8:22 AM  
Anonymous referencement said...

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9/23/2010 11:33 PM  
Anonymous Jerry said...

I have been following your blog for singapore stock market related information and I just want to tell you what a great blog you are having over here. You deserve that adsense cheque anytime. I hope you continue posting. Do you think the STI is poised for further upside?

http://sgsharemarket.com/home/2010/09/straits-times-index/>

9/26/2010 11:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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10/05/2010 9:43 PM  
Blogger Steveo said...

The middle chart is GLD/SLV. You can see this is an excellent indicator, when this ratio is at a bottom, the market usually tanks, within 3 to 5 days, but sometimes immediately. The trick is figuring out when the bottom is.

This top chart is SPY/VIX I plotted it just to see if any interesting effects came up....none really

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10/11/2010 5:30 AM  
Blogger Lucky Tan said...

With the stock market roaring due to QE2, why do you need to AdSense cheques?

Wasn't your blog a labor of love? What happened why stop for 6 month?

...anyway over the years the thing I learn about the stock market : it is not how much profits you make during the bull market but how much you manage to keep when the bad times come that matters.

11/08/2010 6:55 AM  
Blogger DanielXX said...

Simple answer: I got lazy.

plus, not much point since market was in doldrums so difficult to find overvalued stocks.

maybe I should start again sometime in near future. but i think i've covered almost a hundred hotstocksnot stocks, so will have to look around to write on others that I haven't touched before.

11/08/2010 9:55 PM  
Blogger Steveo said...

Stock can be hot, then they are not....it is not a static thing.

11/08/2010 11:09 PM  
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